FY26 Stabilization Inventory — May 2026
Mayflower Church FY26 Stabilization Inventory
Phase 1 of the May–October 2026 Management Plan adoption. Drafted by Anton Brown, Senior Pastor — May 4, 2026 (Revision 3, incorporating monthly dashboards Jan 2025 – Mar 2026 and the March 2026 Attendance Trend Report).
Headline
2025 was a hard year. Mayflower lost 29 regular attenders or members across fifteen families. Worship attendance, BFG enrollment, and Total Tithes & Offerings all declined. By the closing 12-week rolling average, attendance was 12.7 below the end of 2024.
And — at the same time — there are real signs of life. 2025 average per capita giving rose to $67.01, the highest figure since 2022, indicating that those who stayed gave more sacrificially. Q1 2026 Budget+Funds giving ($48,327) was the highest first quarter in recent history. EQUIP attendance is at a five-year high (averaging 20+ each month since November). January 2026 saw four baptisms. March 2026 BFG/Bible Study attendance reached 33, the highest in a year. Total Participation in March 2026 (611) was the highest since November 2024.
The FY26 budget was set ambitiously: $259,154 in income, against 2025 actual Total Tithes & Offerings of $204,332. That is a 27% increase. The gap we appeared to be running against the FY26 budget through April 17 (income at 22.3% of budget at 29% of year) is therefore largely a budget-design gap rather than a generosity gap. The pastoral question for the August Summit and the FY27 budget is whether to chase that gap or recalibrate expectations to a sustainable baseline.
1. Year-over-Year Trend (from the 2025 Annual Dashboard)
Giving (annual totals 2022–2025)
Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2024→2025 |
Total Budget & Funds | $140,196 | $166,048 | $181,381 | $168,076 | −8% |
Total Tithes & Offerings | $168,885 | $204,332 | $217,188 | $204,332 | −6% |
Total Missions | $24,936 | $34,062 | $32,698 | $25,265 | −29% |
Avg Weekly Giving | $3,380 | $3,789 | $4,187 | $4,018 | −4% |
Avg Per Capita | $62.36 | $58.28 | $59.37 | $67.01 | +11% |
Read: Total dollars dropped, but per capita giving rose meaningfully. The −29% in Missions was driven by the absence of large one-time gifts (per the Annual Report); ordinary missions giving was steady. The −8% in Total Budget & Funds is the line that most directly reflects pew-level participation and is the most important to watch.
Attendance (annual totals 2022–2025)
Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2024→2025 |
Total Worship Attendance | 2,742 | 3,502 | 3,676 | 3,064 | −17% |
Total Participation (all activities) | 4,491 | 5,690 | 6,327 | 5,430 | −14% |
Total BFG & Bible Study | 710 | 1,135 | 1,456 | 1,185 | −19% |
Avg Weekly Worship Attendance | 51.2 | 63.8 | 70.6 | 63.3 | −10% |
Read: 2024 was the high water mark. The losses in 2025 were concentrated in fifteen named families and span a range of reasons: relocations, theological drift, changes in life stage, and one return (Joan Robinson).
2. Monthly Trajectory (from the dashboards)
Average weekly worship attendance, Total Giving (excludes counseling), and baptisms by month, where available:
Month | Avg/Sun Worship | Total Giving | Baptisms |
Jan 2025 | — | $17,858 | — |
Feb 2025 | — | — | — |
Mar 2025 | — | — | — |
Apr 2025 | 68 | $23,369 | 0 |
May 2025 | — | — | — |
Jun 2025 | 65 | $21,115 | 0 |
Jul 2025 | 59 | $14,506 | 0 |
Aug 2025 | 58 | $18,726 | 3 |
Sep 2025 | 64 | $14,336 | 0 |
Oct 2025 | 66 | $15,972 | 1 |
Nov 2025 | 66 | $20,811 | — |
Dec 2025 | 63 | $14,443 | — |
Jan 2026 | 62 | $18,009 | 4 |
Feb 2026 | 58 | $17,508 | — |
Mar 2026 | 65 | $21,102 | — |
Pattern: 2025 average worship attendance settled into a 58–66 band with summer dips (July 59, August 58) and fall recovery (Oct/Nov 66). 2026 has held that band so far (Jan 62, Feb 58 — depressed by weather cancellations including 4 of 4 services in February, Mar 65). Giving is steady-to-strong: every full month except February 2025 (no dashboard) has produced $14K+ in Total Giving, and the months above $20K (April, June, November 2025; March 2026) all included a fifth Sunday or special-events giving.
3. Q1 Comparison and 12-Week Outlook
Period | Avg/Sun Worship | Total Giving | Baptisms |
Q1 2024 | 67-69 | — | — |
Q1 2025 | 65 | — | — |
Q1 2026 | 62 (avg of monthly avgs) | $48,327 Budget+Funds (highest Q1 in recent history) | 4 (January) |
From the March 2026 Attendance Trend Report: the current 12-week rolling average is 60.7, down 12.7 from the end of 2024. The 2026-through-Mar-15 average is 59.9 across 10 Sundays. Read against 2025's full-year average of 63.3, that's a continued softening — but the dollar trajectory (Q1 2026 strongest Q1 in recent history) is heading the other way. The two metrics are diverging, which means a smaller core is giving more sacrificially.
4. Encouraging Signals to Steward Into
- EQUIP attendance: 24-25 average in January 2026 (highest in five years on the dashboards); 20 in February and March 2026. The dashboard author has flagged this repeatedly as encouraging.
- Baptisms: 4 in January 2026 alone. 2025 had 4 across the year (3 in August, 1 in October). January 2026's four baptisms exceed all of 2025.
- BFG/Bible Study attendance: March 2026 averaged 33, the highest in a year. The Spring 2026 cohort is gathering momentum.
- Total Participation in March 2026 (611): the highest since November 2024.
- Q1 2026 Budget+Funds giving ($48,327): the highest Q1 in recent history per the dashboard.
- Per capita giving in 2025 ($67.01) and Jan 2026 ($97.35): the highest values on record. Those who stayed are leaning in.
5. Real Concerns to Name Plainly
- Twenty-nine attenders/members lost in 2025. The Annual Report's Table 2 names every family. The cumulative effect on attendance, giving, and morale is real.
- Worship attendance trend is gradually downward over four years' window — 2024 70.6 → 2025 63.3 → 2026 thru Mar 15: 59.9. Without intervention, the trajectory continues.
- Bible Study and BFG enrollment dropped sharply in 2025 (−55% in average attendance). Spring 2026 is rebuilding, but slowly.
- Visitor retention is the dashboard author's named concern. Visitors comprised 10% or more of worship attendance on 22 of 50 Sundays tracked in 2025; few converted to regulars.
- FY26 budget was set 27% above 2025 actuals. Either a real giving recovery or a recalibration is required by the August Summit.
6. Inventory of Active Initiatives
Items below are drafted, in motion, or already adopted. Each should be confirmed in May–June with the responsible board and either folded into FY26 close-out or named explicitly as an FY27 carry-over.
Domain | Item | Owner | Status | Disposition |
Constitution & Bylaws | Bylaw Amendment Gap Memo (April 2026) | Senior Pastor / Clerk | Active | Carry into FY27 plan; close gaps before October 25, 2026 vote |
Affiliation | CCCC withdrawal complete; SBC affiliation in progress | Senior Pastor / Elder Board | Active | Update Two-Page Plan page 1; integrate Guidelines for Seeking a Pastor (SBC Draft) |
Senior Pastor JD | Job Description Rev. 3 (April 2026) | Elder Board | Active | Adopt; cycle into Pastoral Review |
Employee Handbook | Draft April 2026 (incl. Mandated Reporter) | Elders / Trustees | Draft | Review, adopt, publish on BookStack |
Hiring SOP | Non-Pastoral Staff Hiring SOP (April 2026) | Elders / Trustees | Active | Adopt and use for next hire |
Decision-Making Framework | Framework + Quick Card (April 2026) | All Boards | Active | Use to scope FY27 plan items by decision rights |
Performance Evaluation Stack | Framework, Pastoral Review, Joy-at-Work, Office Bearer Reaffirmation, Volunteer Check-In | Elders / each board | Drafts | Adopt before fall reaffirmation cycle |
Event System | Event Evaluation Process, Debrief Template, Planning Checklist | Hospitality / Comms | Active | Use for every flagship event in 2026 |
Meeting System | Meeting System (Draft April 2026) | All Boards | Draft | Adopt; align with quarterly cadence |
Volunteer Chapter | Volunteer Chapter (Draft April 2026); Serving Team Huddle Guide | Each Team Leader | Draft | Pair with team-by-board oversight model |
Two-Page Plan | Two-Page Plan (Draft April 2026) | Senior Pastor | Draft -> FY27 anchor | Refreshed at August 2026 Leadership Summit |
Annual Goals Template | Annual Goals Template (Draft April 2026) | Each Board | Draft -> FY27 anchor | Populated at Summit; re-populated annually |
Leadership Handoff | Guidelines + Quick Card (April 2026) | Each Board | Active | Use at September officer transitions |
Five Priority Ministries | Document (January 2026) | Senior Pastor / Elders | Active | Anchor of Two-Page Plan, page 1 |
Monthly Dashboards | Jan 2025 - Mar 2026 (active) | Dashboard author (Amy/secretary) | Active | Continue; standardize attendance taxonomy in May for full FY27 baseline |
7. Quick Wins for May–June
Six high-leverage items that do not require congregational approval and can move before the July Board of Finance build.
Action | Why it matters now | Owner |
Standardize attendance metric on the dashboards | Definitions vary across years (visitor sub-types, online treatment, BFG vs Bible Study). Lock one going-forward taxonomy in May 2026 so the August Summit and FY27 Two-Page Plan can populate Indicator targets cleanly. | Dashboard author / Senior Pastor |
Tie QB expense categories to Streamline systems | Currently functional, not mission-keyed. Mapping table makes BoF July build plan-aware. | Financial Secretary / Treasurer |
Adopt the Performance Evaluation Stack | Five drafts ready. Adoption lets the Summit tie goals to people. | Elder Board |
Adopt Meeting System & Decision-Making Framework | Both drafted. Clears Robert's-Rules ambiguity that has slowed plan execution. | Elders / Moderator |
Set FY27 financial assumptions in writing by July 1 | Including a realistic giving baseline (use 2025 actual, not 2024 peak); missions/capital priorities; staffing assumptions. | Senior Pastor / BoF |
Address the FY26 budget vs. 2025 actuals gap | FY26 budget of $259K was set 27% above 2025 actual Total Tithes ($204K). Either name how we will close that gap or revise FY27 expectations downward toward a sustainable baseline. | BoF / Elder Board |
8. Calendar of Plan Milestones — FY26 Mid-Year through FY27 Q1
Mayflower's fiscal year is January 1 to December 31. The planning cycle that produces each year's budget runs from July through October of the prior year, anchored by the Board of Finance build (July), the Leadership Summit (August), the officer transition (September), and the quarterly congregational vote (late October).
When | Milestone |
May 2026 | Phase 1 stabilization inventory reviewed by Elder Board (FY26 Q2) |
May 2026 | Each Team Leader confirms team status, owner, and one-line FY26 outcome |
June 2026 | FY26 mid-year reflection from each board (one-pager) - feeds Summit |
July 2026 | Board of Finance opens FY27 budget build, plan-aware |
August 2026 | Leadership Summit: produces FY27 Two-Page Plan + Annual Goals |
September 2026 | Officer elections, leadership handoff, plan owners confirmed |
September 6-27, 2026 | Q3 Stewardship Arc (4-week sermon series, 2 Cor 8-9) |
October 25, 2026 | Quarterly Congregational Meeting: approve FY27 budget |
November-December 2026 | FY26 close-out; Q4 plan health check |
January 1, 2027 | FY27 begins |
February 2027 | FY26 year-end review; first quarterly meeting |
9. Open Questions for Elder Board Review
- Visitor retention strategy: the dashboard data shows steady visitor flow but limited conversion to regulars. Should this be one of the three to five FY27 priorities at the August Summit?
- Bible Fellowship Group expansion: 2025 saw fewer groups; 2026 has only 2 in-person BFGs in the spring. Is launching additional BFGs an FY27 priority?
- FY27 budget realism: do we set FY27 closer to 2025 actuals ($204K Total Tithes) or maintain an aspirational $260K target?
- Departures: should the elders revisit the fifteen families who left in 2025 — pastorally, not analytically — to learn what we should be doing differently?
- SBC affiliation impact on the Two-Page Plan page 1: refresh now, or at the August Summit?
10. Recommended Next Steps
- Circulate this inventory to the Elder Board ahead of their next Tuesday meeting; ask each board chair to confirm the Disposition column for items in their domain.
- In June, each board produces a one-page reflection on FY26 to date — what is in motion, what has been completed, what is being carried into FY27 planning.
- Use the July BoF meeting to bind every requested FY27 budget line to a goal area on the Annual Goals Template and to set a realistic income baseline drawn from 2025 actuals.
- Use the August Leadership Summit to produce the FY27 Two-Page Plan and Annual Goals — three to five priorities with named owners and indicators (visitor retention, BFG expansion, baptisms, per capita giving).
- Run the September stewardship arc (separate document) tied to the FY27 priorities.
- Archive the FY26 inventory, FY26 board reflections, FY27 Two-Page Plan, and FY27 Annual Goals to BookStack on the Mayflower Church Operations shelf.
Source data: Monthly dashboards Jan 2025 – Mar 2026; 2025 Annual Dashboard Report; Mayflower Attendance Trend and Projections Report (March 2026); QuickBooks Budget vs. Actuals through April 17, 2026; Donations export Jan 18 – May 3, 2026.
Revision history: Rev. 3 (May 4, 2026) — incorporates the full monthly dashboard set Jan 2025–Mar 2026, the 2025 Annual Report, and the March 2026 Attendance Trend Report. Replaces partial-workbook attendance numbers with the dashboard series. Adds 2025 actuals as the FY27 baseline reference. Acknowledges that 'behind FY26 budget' was largely a budget-design gap (FY26 budget set 27% above 2025 actual). Names the encouraging signals (EQUIP, baptisms, Q1 2026 giving) alongside the real losses.